Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
